look toward more normal monetary policy. Starting in Q2 18, we expect EUR appreciation to renew on the back of an announcement around sequencing of ECB tightening. A move lower in usdjpy is likely to coincide with the weaker USD trend but also reflects JPY-specific factors of extended undervaluation, stretched short positioning, and prospective BoJ policy normalization. Meanwhile, the Euro will likely carry an increased risk premium as Mays Italian election approaches, which could cap any further gains for the currency, although the outlook becomes more bullish beyond this point. The market continues to price in fewer hikes relative to Fed dots or our own forecasts. Get up to 5 more foreign exchange by using a specialist provider by getting closer to the real market rate and avoid the gaping spreads charged by your bank for international payments. Log in to FastNet Classic internet banking. European Central Bank begun to eye an exit from the bond market, strategists. Even if changes at the Fed lead to a faster pace of rate hikes, we believe this is not likely to change the terminal rate in the current cycle and as such will aid further flattening in the US yield curve. Such a hawkish shift in BoJ policy relative to consensus bolsters our view of JPY appreciation towards 105 by end-2018.
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Please note that we do not have direct control over the third party website. Barclays have now set out what they expect 2018 has in store for the currency market. US Dollar, the package of modest tax cuts, which appears much more likely, may present some upside risks to our range-bound USD forecast into Q1 18, but we believe it is unlikely to challenge the highs seen at the beginning of 2017 or change the. Bank of England raised interest rates for the first time in a decade and the. We recommend that you review the third partys privacy and information security policies, because they may differ from ASBs policies. At the tail end of a year where the US Dollar index dropped by a double-digit percentage, the. You can order notes, foreign cheques and send International Money Transfers through FastNet Classic internet banking. Euro, the Italian election will likely result in a higher risk premium for the EUR in the near term, but we see the Politics of Rage more as a medium-term risk for the euro area. The EUR's gains will likely remain supported by solid euro area growth, but much further gains are capped, as the currency is close to fair value. The Pound Sterling, on the other hand, could trade substantially higher after Brexit is successfully negotiated, although a question mark may hover over its likely long-term value for some time to come.
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